SPRAWL // 04 / POLITICS

POLITICS

Legislation, export controls, procurement, lobbying spend

DATA • CONVERSATIONS • SIGNALS • HUMANS • MACHINES

12export-control rules published in 2026to 24 September 2026

Politics: a painting from the house’s oil series

01 /Interlinked6pieces, each an article and a film 02 /Data2charts, each live from a table we hold 03 /Conversations6posts this period and quoted 04 /Signals28sources our pieces cite 05 /Humans39people on the Replicants list

Interlinked

Politics

Data

OPEN THE INSTRUMENT →

Open Politics in Esper →

The rows behind this figure: export-control rules and proposed rules published in 2026, each document once

The table is read from the same data file as the chart when this section is opened.

All Interlinked: Politics

Politics

Energy interlinked

Technology interlinked

Conversations

The most engaged AI posts among Politics’s tracked accounts and searches since 2026-10-17: 119 posts read, 15 kept, 6 dropped as only a link, 98 dropped as not about AI. The posts are their authors’ own words; the rule under each pick says why it stands here.

The most engaged ai posts of the period

no point two accounts share this period; 15 AI posts read, the most engaged of each account shown

Dean W. Ball@deanwballOPEN THE POST ON X →

2026-10-18 · 21:51 JST

Distillation has always been part of the explanation for why China is so close behind the U.S. in model benchmark performance. But one of my updates after joining openai is that distillation probably plays a bigger role in the explanation than I realized. x.com/scaling01/stat…

AS POSTED ON X

Why this post

the most engaged AI post of @deanwball this period (1077 likes, 60 reposts, 33 quotes, 77 replies as read); from the lane

Chuck Schumer@SenSchumerOPEN THE POST ON X →

2026-10-20 · 00:28 JST

The FCC MUST reject the request made by a Republican group that would allow political groups to make robocalls to cell phones without people’s permission.

Putting Americans in a position where they can be fed misinformation through AI-generated deception ahead of a crucial election is yet another attempt by Republicans to mislead voters.

The risk here is severe: unleashing a Pandora’s box of election mis- and disinformation made more believable with AI. The approaching election is a reason to preserve safeguards, not suspend them.
reuters.com/world/us/senat…

AS POSTED ON X

Why this post

the most engaged AI post of @SenSchumer this period (288 likes, 99 reposts, 16 quotes, 309 replies as read); from the lane

Council on Foreign Relations@CFR_orgOPEN THE POST ON X →

2026-10-17 · 22:36 JST

The debate over autonomous weapons and the debate over frontier AI safety are about different problems, argue experts @mchorowitz and @Lauren_A_Kahn. To regulate them, policymakers need a framework to address it, they write.

“Everyone wants autonomy to be a clear binary, yes or no. . . . In reality, autonomy is a spectrum defined by the technology being used and the human choices that are made to employ a weapon system. The question isn't, ‘Is it autonomous?' but rather, ‘How autonomous is it?'”

“What few people understand is how much autonomy is already in modern military systems—and has been for decades,” they write.

Read their analysis: cfr.org/articles/the-a…

AS POSTED ON X

Why this post

the most engaged AI post of @CFR_org this period (85 likes, 25 reposts, 1 quotes, 3 replies as read); from the lane

The posts our Politics pieces quoted

Not a feed. Each with the piece that used it.

Miles Brundage@Miles_BrundageOPEN THE POST ON X →

2026-10-01 · 20:27 JST

To clarify, if Oracle were actually rigorously monitoring how it was used + prepared to intervene I’d feel differently (likewise for selling chips in some cases, though the bar is higher in the latter case for effectiveness of monitoring).

I just have no reason to think that’s the situation given the general state of export control policy (rampant smuggling tolerated for years, huge loopholes lasting years, policy turning on a dime after a meeting btwn Trump and Jensen, etc) though hopefully I’m missing something here!

AS POSTED ON X

Quoted in The Export-Control Clock

Epoch AI@EpochAIResearchOPEN THE POST ON X →

2026-09-18 · 04:41 JST

This flow began a few months after the US banned exports of Nvidia’s A800/H800 GPUs to China (October 2023) and then collapsed within weeks of Malaysia requiring a permit to export or transship high-performance AI chips (July 2025).

AS POSTED ON X

Quoted in The Export-Control Clock

BISgov@BISgovOPEN THE POST ON X →

2025-09-30 · 23:47 JST

“For too long, loopholes have enabled exports that undermine American national security and foreign policy interests. Under this Administration, BIS is closing the loopholes and ensuring that export controls work as intended." - Under Secretary Jeffrey I. Kessler https://t.co/XsoEj4KUBu

AS POSTED ON X

Quoted in The Export-Control Clock

Signals

The filings, reports and news stories behind the Politics pieces, as each piece cites them. A document two pieces cite shows twice.

Federal Register, rules of the Bureau of Industry and Security, 9 October 2026 data collectioncited in The Export-Control Clock
Federal Register, 87 FR 62186, the chip rule of October 2022cited in The Export-Control Clock
Federal Register, 88 FR 73458, the chip rule of October 2023cited in The Export-Control Clock
Federal Register, 90 FR 4544, the Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion, January 2025cited in The Export-Control Clock
Federal Register, 91 FR 1684, the H200 licence review rule, January 2026cited in The Export-Control Clock
Federal Register, 91 FR 43034, the rule of July 2026cited in The Export-Control Clock
Federal Register, 90 FR 47201 and 90 FR 50857, the affiliates rule of September 2025 and its suspensioncited in The Export-Control Clock
Bureau of Industry and Security, press release on the rescission of the AI diffusion rule, 13 May 2025cited in The Export-Control Clock
Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Trump Administration Ratchets Up Export Control Penalties", analysis by Kevin Kurland and Kate Koren, 24 September 2026 the source ↗cited in The Export-Control Clock
Nvidia, Form 8-K reports of 26 August 2022, 17 October 2023, 23 October 2023, 13 January 2025 and 9 April 2025cited in The Export-Control Clock
Nvidia, Form 10-Q for the quarters ended 27 April 2025, 27 July 2025 and 26 October 2025cited in The Export-Control Clock
Nvidia, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 25 January 2026, filed 25 February 2026cited in The Export-Control Clock
Nvidia, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 July 2026, filed 26 August 2026cited in The Export-Control Clock
Epoch AI, AI chip sales timelines by chip and chip types, 9 October 2026 data collectioncited in The Export-Control Clock
X posts: Miles Brundage, 1 October 2026; Epoch AI, 17 September 2026; the Bureau of Industry and Security, 30 September 2025 and 12 February 2026cited in The Export-Control Clock
CNBC, "Nvidia says it will record $5.5 billion charge tied to H20 processors exported to China", Kif Leswing and Jordan Novet, 15 April 2025 the source ↗cited in The Export-Control Clock
TechCrunch, "Trump administration officially rescinds Biden's AI diffusion rules", Rebecca Szkutak, 13 May 2025 the source ↗cited in The Export-Control Clock
CNBC (Emily Wilkins), 'AI industry super PAC raises $125 million in 2025', 30 January 2026 the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
U.S. Federal Election Commission, committee C00916114, 'LEADING THE FUTURE' (a super PAC), its reports on Form 3X: the year-end report for 2025 and the April and July quarterly reports for 2026, read through the Commission's public data service on 2 October 2026cited in The Preemption Play
U.S. Senate, roll call vote 363, 119th Congress, 1st session, 1 July 2025, 4:08 AM: on the Blackburn amendment, S.Amdt. 2814 to S.Amdt. 2360 to H.R. 1 the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
Colorado Attorney General, 'Colorado Automated Decision-Making Technology & Chatbot Safety Rulemaking' the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
The White House, Executive Order 14365, 'Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence', 11 December 2025 the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
California Legislature, SB 1047 (Wiener), bill status the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
California Legislature, SB 53 (Wiener), 'Artificial intelligence models: large developers', Chapter 138, bill text as chaptered the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
Texas Legislature Online, HB 149, 89th Regular Session, bill history the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
Colorado General Assembly, SB24-205, 'Consumer Protections for Artificial Intelligence', bill summary as enacted the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
Colorado General Assembly, SB25B-004, 'Increase Transparency for Algorithmic Systems', bill summary as enacted the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
TechCrunch (Rebecca Bellan), 'US Senate removes controversial AI moratorium from budget bill', 1 July 2025 the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play