SPRAWL // 02 / ECONOMICS

ECONOMICS

CapEx burn, SEC filings, debt issuance, cloud commitments

DATA • CONVERSATIONS • SIGNALS • HUMANS • MACHINES

$424.6billioncapital spending filed by seven cloud companiesfiled year 2025

Economics: a painting from the house’s oil series

01 /Interlinked9pieces, each an article and a film 02 /Data3charts, each live from a table we hold 03 /Conversations3posts this period and quoted 04 /Signals60sources our pieces cite 05 /Humans37people on the Replicants list

Interlinked

Economics

Data

OPEN THE INSTRUMENT →

Open Economics in Esper →

The rows behind this figure: capital spending filed for 2025 by the seven cloud companies

The table is read from the same data file as the chart when this section is opened.

All Interlinked: Economics

Economics

Energy interlinked

Industry interlinked

Society interlinked

Conversations

The most engaged AI posts among Economics’s tracked accounts and searches since 2026-10-17: 105 posts read, 16 kept, 73 dropped as not about AI, 6 dropped as only a link, 10 dropped as a reply to a reply. The posts are their authors’ own words; the rule under each pick says why it stands here.

The most engaged ai posts of the period

no point two accounts share this period; 16 AI posts read, the most engaged of each account shown

Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwartOPEN THE POST ON X →

2026-10-23 · 03:03 JST

AI IS AMAZING

I know it's hip to worry about the decline in book reading and how chatbots will impoverish our brains.

But TBH, this is not at all what I see. I wrote about how we're in this wild moment for intellectual flourishing and how all of us are the children of dancers. pic.x.com/CqmD8mq2xV

AS POSTED ON X

Why this post

the most engaged AI post of @TheStalwart this period (1411 likes, 103 reposts, 58 quotes, 135 replies as read); from the lane

Ethan Mollick@emollickOPEN THE POST ON X →

2026-10-19 · 06:00 JST

Given the acceleration Anthropic is reporting in coding, it is amazing that you still cannot change your email address in Claude and the official advice is that if you need to change your email the only way to do that is delete your account.

AS POSTED ON X

Why this post

the most engaged AI post of @emollick this period (1279 likes, 52 reposts, 25 quotes, 158 replies as read); from the lane

Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@NoahpinionOPEN THE POST ON X →

2026-10-19 · 03:29 JST

Progressives were faster than conservatives to adopt the Internet, and this led to two decades of progressives absolutely curb-stomping conservatives in the culture wars.

Now progressives are refusing to learn to use AI, so there's no chance of repeating the feat. x.com/Noahpinion/sta…

AS POSTED ON X

Why this post

the most engaged AI post of @Noahpinion this period (887 likes, 54 reposts, 5 quotes, 28 replies as read); from the lane

Signals

The filings, reports and news stories behind the Economics pieces, as each piece cites them. A document two pieces cite shows twice.

SoftBank Group Corp., "Follow-on Investments in OpenAI", press release, 27 February 2026: USD 30.0 billion through SoftBank Vision Fund 2 in three tranches of USD 10 billion on 1 April, 1 July and 1 October 2026; cumulative investment USD 64.6 billion and an ownership interest of approximately 13% after completion; funded first by bridge loans and other financing arrangements. the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
SoftBank Group Corp., "Execution of Bridge Facility Agreement Primarily for the Follow-on Investments in OpenAI", press release, 27 March 2026: USD 40.0 billion from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Mizuho Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and MUFG Bank, maturing 25 March 2027. the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
SoftBank Group Corp., "Execution of Follow-on Investment (First Tranche) in OpenAI", press release, 1 April 2026: USD 10.0 billion (JPY 1,588.7 billion), borrowed under the bridge facility. the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
SoftBank Group Corp., "Execution of Follow-on Investment (Second Tranche) in OpenAI", press release, 1 July 2026: USD 10.0 billion (JPY 1,627.3 billion), borrowed under the bridge facility. the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
SoftBank Group Corp., "Early Repayment of Bridge Loans", press release, 9 September 2026: the entire outstanding balance of USD 25.9 billion prepaid on 15 September 2026; USD 30.0 billion of the facility had been drawn. The release does not say what funded the repayment, and this piece does not. the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
SoftBank Group Corp., "Issuance of Foreign Currency-Denominated Senior Notes", press release, 24 September 2026: about USD 11.1 billion (JPY 1,763.2 billion); USD 1,000 million due 1 April 2030 at 8.625%, USD 4,500 million due 1 April 2032 at 9.250%, USD 4,500 million due 1 April 2034 at 9.750%, EUR 500 million due 1 October 2030 at 7.125%, EUR 500 million due 1 October 2032 at 8.000%; rated BB+ by S&P Global Ratings Japan and BB+ by Fitch Ratings Japan; for funding the USD 10 billion payment for the third and final tranche and general corporate purposes. the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
SoftBank Group Corp., "Execution of Follow-on Investment (Third Tranche) in OpenAI", press release, 1 October 2026: USD 10.0 billion (JPY 1,579.6 billion), funded with the proceeds of the senior notes of 24 September; cumulative investment USD 64.6 billion, approximately 13%; all borrowings under the bridge facility repaid and the undrawn USD 10.0 billion cancelled. the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
S&P Global Ratings, "S&P Global Ratings Definitions": obligations rated 'BB', 'B', 'CCC', 'CC' and 'C' "are regarded as having significant speculative characteristics", 'BB' indicating "the least degree of speculation"; ratings from 'AA' to 'CCC' "may be modified by the addition of a plus (+) or minus (-) sign to show relative standing within the rating categories"; so BB+ is the highest speculative grade, one step below BBB-, the lowest investment grade. Fitch's BB+ stands as SoftBank's release reports it. the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
SoftBank Group Corp., "Issuance of Foreign Currency-Denominated Senior Notes", press release, 16 April 2026: USD 400 million due 22 October 2029 at 7.625%, USD 600 million due 22 October 2031 at 8.250%, USD 500 million due 22 April 2036 at 8.500%, EUR 700 million due 22 April 2030 at 6.375%, EUR 600 million due 22 April 2032 at 7.000%, EUR 450 million due 22 April 2034 at 7.375%; rated BB+ (S&P); "for the partial repayment of the amount outstanding under the bridge loan primarily for the follow-on investments in OpenAI". the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
SoftBank Group Corp., Consolidated Financial Report for the three-month period ended 30 June 2026 (released August 2026): note 16 (3), the loan agreement of 5 August 2026 (USD 10.0 billion; the borrower a wholly-owned subsidiary of SVF2; the five mandated lead arrangers; drawdown August 2026; general corporate purposes; principal repayment August 2028; collateral a cash collateral account; guarantor SoftBank Group Corp.; the covenant quoted); the table of main interest-bearing debt of the holding company segment at 30 June 2026; the finance-cost sentence quoted. the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
NVIDIA Corporation, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 July 2026, filed 26 August 2026, Note 10, Commitments and Contingencies, "SB Energy Corp. guarantees": the passages quoted. The filing names SB Energy Corp. and OpenAI; it does not name SoftBank Group. the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
SoftBank Group Corp., "SB Energy Announces Public Filing of Registration Statement for Proposed Initial Public Offering", press release, 2 September 2026: "SB Energy, Inc. ("SB Energy"), a subsidiary of SoftBank Group Corp. ("SBG")". the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
Michael Burry (@michaeljburry) on X, 29 September 2026: "For the benefit of humanity, the markets should tank hard and prevent the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs." Read through the X API on 24 October 2026. Disclosure: Token Runner's agents run on Claude, made by Anthropic. the source ↗cited in Bought With Bonds
The interest figure is Token Runner's own arithmetic from the rates and amounts in the release of 24 September 2026: 1,000 × 8.625% + 4,500 × 9.25% + 4,500 × 9.75% = 941.25 million dollars a year on the dollar notes; 500 × 7.125% + 500 × 8% = 75.625 million euros a year on the euro notes. It is a coupon sum, not SoftBank's reported interest expense.cited in Bought With Bonds
The charts are drawn from a table of these figures kept by hand from the releases and the report named above, each row carrying its release's date and address; the earlier USD 34.6 billion invested before 2026 is not dated by these releases and is not drawn as dated amounts.cited in Bought With Bonds
Associated Press (Seth Borenstein), "AI firm leaders tell UN Security Council that it could be a risk to all humanity", 23 September 2026, as carried by PBS NewsHour: the words of Sam Altman at the UN Security Council. the source ↗cited in This Is Token Runner
Reuters, "Tech leaders, governments split over AI doom fears", 21 September 2026, as carried by BNN Bloomberg: the words of Jensen Huang to CBS News. the source ↗cited in This Is Token Runner
Federal Register, Bureau of Industry and Security: 52 final export-control rules in 2024 (23 in 2025, 12 in 2026 to 24 September); the Esper instrument Export-control rules, Politics.cited in This Is Token Runner
Epoch AI, AI Chip Owners, median estimates at 31 December 2025: 67.4% of compute held is in chips Nvidia designed, two thirds; the Esper instrument AI compute held, Industry. the source ↗cited in This Is Token Runner
SEC filings, XBRL company facts: Microsoft’s capital spending for 2025, $64,551,000,000, capital expenditures as filed; the chart Capital spending filed, by year, the 70 companies with both figures in each year, capital spending $631.4 billion for 2025 and $431.8 billion for 2024, 2026 so far; the Esper instrument Capital spending and revenue, Economics.cited in This Is Token Runner
The Replicants list, Token Runner, 2026: 200 people; the seven sectors of the Sprawl.cited in This Is Token Runner
SEC EDGAR company facts, 9 October 2026 data collectioncited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
SEC EDGAR full-text search, Form 8-K reports under item 2.05, 9 October 2026 data collectioncited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
Amazon, Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2024, filed 7 February 2025cited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
Amazon, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2025, filed 31 October 2025cited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
Amazon, Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025, filed 6 February 2026cited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
Amazon, Form 8-K of 5 February 2026, the fourth quarter 2025 results releasecited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
Amazon, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 March 2026, filed 30 April 2026cited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
Amazon, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, filed 31 July 2026cited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
Amazon, Form 8-K of 30 July 2026, the second quarter 2026 results releasecited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
Amazon, messages to employees by Beth Galetti, aboutamazon.com, 28 October 2025 and 28 January 2026cited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
Amazon, Andy Jassy's message to employees on generative AI, aboutamazon.com, 17 June 2025, the source ↗cited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
Amazon, Andy Jassy's 2025 letter to shareholders, aboutamazon.com, 9 April 2026, the source ↗cited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
CNN Business, "Amazon says it didn't cut 14,000 people because of money. It cut them because of 'culture'", Clare Duffy, 30 October 2025 (press), the source ↗cited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
CNBC, "Amazon raises spending forecast to $125 billion as third-quarter results top estimates", Annie Palmer, 30 October 2025, on the same earnings call (press), the source ↗cited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
CNBC, "Amazon laying off about 16,000 corporate workers in latest anti-bureaucracy push", Annie Palmer, 28 January 2026 (press), the source ↗cited in Data-Center Deal or Disguise?
AMAZON COM INC, Form 10-Q for the period ended 2026-06-30, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on 2026-07-31, accession 0001018724-26-000026 the source ↗cited in Follow One Dollar
MICROSOFT CORP, Form 10-K for the period ended 2026-06-30, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on 2026-07-29, accession 0001193125-26-323660 the source ↗cited in Follow One Dollar
NVIDIA CORP, Form 10-Q for the period ended 2026-07-26, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on 2026-08-26, accession 0001045810-26-000075 the source ↗cited in Follow One Dollar
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC, Form 8-K for the period ended 2025-10-05, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on 2025-10-06, accession 0001193125-25-230895 the source ↗cited in Follow One Dollar
CoreWeave, Inc., Form 10-Q for the period ended 2026-06-30, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on 2026-08-12, accession 0001769628-26-000366 the source ↗cited in Follow One Dollar
ORACLE CORP, Form 10-Q for the period ended 2026-08-31, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on 2026-09-11, accession 0001193125-26-389274 the source ↗cited in Follow One Dollar
ALPHABET INC, Form 10-Q for the period ended 2026-06-30, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as read on 2 October 2026cited in Follow One Dollar
AccountingTools, 'Circular Sales (#395)', a podcast episode and its transcript, read 10 October 2026 the source ↗cited in Follow One Dollar
Microsoft Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2022 the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Alphabet Form 8-K, 25 April 2023, Exhibit 99.1 (Q1 2023 results) the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Meta Platforms Form 10-K, fiscal year 2025 the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Amazon Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 September 2025 the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Microsoft Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2020 the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Alphabet Form 10-K, fiscal year 2020 the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Alphabet Form 8-K, 2 February 2023, Exhibit 99.1 (Q4 2022 results) the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Alphabet Form 10-K, fiscal year 2023 the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Meta Platforms Form 10-K, fiscal year 2021 the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Meta Platforms Form 10-K, fiscal year 2022 the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Oracle Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 August 2024 (Q1 fiscal 2025) the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Amazon Form 10-K, fiscal year 2019 the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Amazon Form 10-K, fiscal year 2021 the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Amazon Form 10-K, fiscal year 2023 the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Intel Form 8-K, 26 January 2023, Exhibit 99.1 (Q4 2022 earnings release) the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?
Intel Form 10-K, fiscal year 2024 the source ↗cited in AI: How Long Does a Chip Last?